Most people agree that in this presidential election, the political climate favors the Democrats.

Americans remain dissatisfied with the war in Iraq, the economy is going into recession -- a trend that almost always hurts the incumbent party in the White House -- and unfavorable ratings for President Bush remain high.

Still, local Democrats face a tough Feb. 5 choice between current frontrunners Illinois Sen. Barack Obama and New York Sen. Hillary Clinton.

Each candidate has negatives that could undermine the Democrats' assumed advantage.

For Obama, there is the question of whether his experience sufficiently prepares him for the job.

According to published reports, he has two years in the U.S. Senate, seven years in the Illinois Senate, one loss in a primary election for the U.S. House of Representatives, a keynote address at a Democratic National Convention and two best-selling books.

"(The experience question) is probably going to be the thing that hurts him the most," said Stephen Graham, a political science instructor at West Hills College Lemoore.

But paradoxically, it could also help him, if people identify him as untainted by the negatives associated with Washington, D.C.

"The Democratic choice is going to boil down to whether people are willing to go with the hope of Obama or the experience of Hillary (Clinton)," said Mark Trezza, a political science professor at Fresno City College and chairman of the Kings County Democratic central committee.

Also playing into Obama's favor is that he is an articulate, compelling speaker.

Carole Farris, Hanford resident and vice chair of the Democratic committee, heard Obama speak at the state Democratic convention and was impressed.

"The energy when he entered the room, it was just off the charts. He's dynamic," Farris said.

There is the also the race factor. Obama would be the first major party black presidential nominee in U.S. history.

That will help Obama in states like South Carolina with large black populations, but many voters indicate that race will not be a deciding consideration.

For Hillary Clinton, the biggest obstacle may be her high negative ratings with the American public.

A Gallup poll in October showed Clinton with the highest unfavorable rating among any presidential candidate, Republican or Democrat -- 44 percent.

Among conservatives, the dislike sometimes rises to the level of hatred.

Some believe that was an issue in Iowa, where Clinton lost to Obama despite a fundraising edge and a powerhouse organization.

"I don't know if people are willing to forget some of the negatives of the Clinton years," said Graham.

But many Democrats think Clinton's years in the White House make her more qualified than Obama.

"She was involved in presidential work, although not directly, but she has had some contact," said Simon Lakritz, longtime Hanford resident.

Lakritz believes Clinton is the more electable candidate.

Farris, on the other hand, thinks Obama is more likely to win because the Republicans will "fight bitterly" against Hillary, "America is ready for a change" and "there are a lot of people who like Obama on both sides of the fence."

As for Clinton, nobody's really sure how the fact that she is a woman will play out in the general election.

Lakritz thinks it's a "possible weakness."

"There's a lot of men out there who cannot stand to be told by a woman what to do," he said.

Trezza thinks that it could play in Clinton's favor at the last moment in November, when women see that they have the opportunity to put the first woman ever in the White House.

"That pretty much cuts across ideological lines," Trezza said.

Trezza sees Clinton as a more "formidable" candidate than Obama, and he agrees that Democrats have the presumptive advantage given the political climate.

But he won't count out the Republicans just yet.

"If (the issue) is national security, the default advantage is Republican," he said, adding that if there is an attack during the campaign, it would likely play in Republicans' favor.

"This will be a close race. That's what makes it interesting. There's no clear front-runner on both sides," Trezza said.

The reporter can be reached at 583-2432.

(Jan. 21, 2008)