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Another View: Governor's fun tax idea is not amusing

A proposal by Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger to slap a hefty tax on ticket sales to amusement parks such as Disneyland, Legoland and Six Flags Magic Mountain, as part of his solution to California's budget deficit, is just plain goofy. Such a "fun tax" probably would yield lower rather than higher tax revenues while killing thousands of jobs.

To understand why the proposed fun tax probably would reduce overall tax revenues, it's essential to understand the economic concept of "price elasticity of demand." It measures how much less of a product consumers would buy if its price is raised or if the product is more heavily taxed.

Highly addictive "sin" products such as alcohol and tobacco have very low price elasticities (less than 1.0, with 0 being baseline). If the taxes on these "inelastic" products are raised, there is very little falloff in demand -- consumers just "gotta have" these goods. The net result is an increase in tax revenues, which is precisely why government officials typically favor sin taxes.

Highly discretionary products such as amusement park visits and sporting events, though, have very high price elasticities (much greater than 1.0). If taxes on these products are raised, there is a proportionally larger falloff in demand. In such cases, the paradoxical result is a drop in tax receipts.

So how might these economic principles apply to the governor's proposed fun tax?

Consider the likely effects on a resort such as Disneyland. According to a Disney fact sheet, the resort directly employs 20,000 people, indirectly employs an additional 41,800 people in the surrounding area and accounts for almost one-third of the $7.3 billion tourism industry in Southern California's Orange County.

Disneyland is also a prodigious tax-revenue generator. It contributes more than half of Anaheim's total annual tax revenues of almost $200 million. Disney visitors spend an additional $1 billion annually at nearby hotels, restaurants and retail stores, which generates another $81 million through various excise taxes, fees, licenses and sales tax.

Now here's the crucial point that has eluded the governor's tax analysts. All of these jobs, economic activity and tax revenues begin with ticket sales at Disneyland. If Schwarzenegger succeeds in slapping a large new ticket tax on this economic "seed corn," there will be a lot fewer Disneyland visitors precisely because resort demand is highly price elastic.

So what might be the possible effect of reduced Disneyland ticket sales on total tax revenues and jobs? Several calculations can help us think this through.

Disneyland hosts roughly 15 million visitors a year at an average daily ticket price of about $60. A new 6.5 percent fun tax on tickets therefore would yield $58.5 million in new direct revenues. However, that's before you take into account the reduction in demand from higher ticket prices.

If one very conservatively assumes a demand price elasticity of 1.0, whereby any percentage increase in price is met with an equal percentage drop in demand, a 6.5 percent increase in ticket prices would result in a reduction in ticket demand equal to about 1 million fewer visitors to Disneyland. So right off the bat, there would be about a $4 million reduction in tax revenue collected from the fun tax.

Now, let's also take into account the loss of significant indirect tax revenue from fewer occupied hotel beds, fewer restaurant meals, fewer souvenirs sold and so on. Consider, for example, just the loss in bed tax revenues. In Anaheim, tourists pony up 15 percent for the bed tax on an average daily hotel rate of $150. If the loss of 1 million visitors to Disneyland results in 250,000 fewer hotel rooms occupied for the year, that's another $5.6 million in forgone revenue.

More broadly, the Anaheim/Orange County Visitor and Convention Bureau reports that visitors spend several hundred dollars a day above their hotel room and ticket expenses. Apply state and local tax rates to these expenditures, and you come up with millions more in the minus category.

This is still only half the story. Let's also consider how a loss in visitors to Disneyland would affect local employment. If just 1,000 of the more than 60,000 jobs generated by Disneyland were cut, and these "fun-tax casualties" collected unemployment compensation, state budget costs would rise by millions more.

In addition -- and this is what probably would finally push the government's fun tax into the revenue red -- the unemployed people would spend far less and in turn create even more unemployment, thereby generating far less in sales and income taxes.

But bottom line: Even if my very conservative scenario is off, and the fun tax ekes out a small gain in revenues, any benefit to the state budget will be more than offset by the recessionary damage done to the California economy.

That's why we don't need a fun tax, but rather a governor who handles this crisis a little bit more like Adam Smith and a lot less like Goofy.

Navarro is a professor at the University of California, Irvine, a CNBC contributor and the author of "The Coming China Wars."

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The following are comments from the readers. In no way do they represent the views of the Hanford Sentinel

Sid wrote on Nov 16, 2008 11:50 AM:

" I suggest an additional tax on any rental of an Arnold movie and a tax on any airing of an Arnold movie on cable, satellite or broadcast TV. Aren't these "fun" luxuries we can do without?

I wonder what might happen to his royalties then?

Plus, he keeps trying to make it better for his Hollywood friends to make movies in California than elsewhere. How about we tax Hollywood for every movie they DON'T make in California as are they not in essence shipping jobs "overseas"? (Toronto and Montreal are now filling in as "New York" in many Hollywood produced movies).

At a minimum, movies are also "fun", hence yet another source of "revenue" for the state. So lets slap an additional dollar tax per ticket to see ANY movie in theatres. "

B. wrote on Nov 16, 2008 3:25 PM:

" I can`t wait for this idiot to leave office. I sure hope everyone who voted for him is happy with what he`s done to this state. He was no more qualified to be Gov. than Davis was. I`m not sure if Arnie thinks he`s a Democrat or a Republican, sounds like he`s been getting idea`s from Uncle Teddy. But, when I see & hear who`s considering a run for Gov. I`m not sure we`re going to be better off.
I wish Sara was our Gov.!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! "

Watchdog Fred wrote on Nov 17, 2008 9:24 AM:

" To: B perhaps if Hollywood does a life story on Sarah she'll be in California and we can pursade her into taking the Govenors job. We could send Arny back to Hollywood and bring Sarah to Sacramento and Todd could fish on the delta the kids would have a good school, sort of and we would have a level headed friend in the mansion. Makes sense to me, but she might want to go on vacation to Alaska so she could shoot a Polar Bear from a whirlee bird. I say we have Bell build her a special one with a .50 caliber machine gun on it. The only requirement is when she shoots it, she has to wear a bikini.
Seriously sports fans she could do a better job on vacation than Arnold does in Sacramento with Jerry Brown adivsing him. "

Watchdog Fred wrote on Nov 17, 2008 9:26 AM:

" To: All who care I have an idea lets charge Arnold a million bucks everytime he mis pronounces Cal lee forn ya. We'll be out of the red in no time and he can afford it. We'll call it the California Educational Fund. "

Watchdog Fred wrote on Nov 17, 2008 5:59 PM:

" To: B. wrote on Nov 16, 2008 5:25 PM:

As long as we keep Barbara Feinstein and Jerry Brown/Kevin Newsome out we should be in pretty good shape. I'd like to give the former lt govenor a shot, he made sense at least.

But I still think the best man to run this state and do it effectively is none other than Alan Autry former Mayor of Fresno, California. "

Mrs.D wrote on Nov 20, 2008 9:23 PM:

" There was that $5.00 renewal fee the DMV had before Arnold took over as governor. That $5.00 fee partially funded social programs for California residents who were unable to pay for items such as insurance and such. Then Arnold took it away because it was too much of a burden on the public. Well, it got to be a bigger burden when those social programs were cut or elimenated and people who headed those programs lost their jobs completely. Five bucks once a year per car is pure death. Arnold and his celebrity got California in this mess and all of the Bush/Cheney Republicans voted him in, so deal with it. And if you think Sarah Palin would be a good idea for California, think again: she approved an ice rink in her town that is still owned by the original owner of the land. It's hemoraghing money and no one skates there. Oooh, Sarah is such a good person and wise with moeny! "

Alihandero wrote on Nov 23, 2008 6:27 AM:

" Well now . . .

"Ms. D" continues to be jealous of Gov. Palin's inherent physical beauty and intelligence. OK, we get it.
____________________

I can't wait for some independent freelance producer - say someone of Alan G's caliber - crafts a new cable TV show:

"The REAL Housewives of Kings County."

The cast could include:

...BJMallory as 'Betts'

...Crystal and Melissa as 'the Twins'

...Ms.D as 'NeNeNo'

...MelMAOB as 'Gay'sha'

...and Deb as 'MoneyPenny.'

It, of course, would be subjected to the state Leisure Tax proposed, with the proceeds going to rebuild Fort Roosevelt at its rightful place in Keller's new parking lot.

I don't think that lot will be too full of customers or inventory from now on . . . "

Mrs.D wrote on Nov 23, 2008 3:14 PM:

" Alihandro, really! What does Palin have to offer: nothing! She's an average politician with a very rural mentality. She could probably run Armona into the ground if someone would let her. But I wouldn't elect her to be governor of our state if she was a resident here.

There's no physical beauty; no inner beauty; nothing there in that head of hers that would make anyone jealous of her. I still can't see her political appeal. "

Watchdog Fred wrote on Nov 23, 2008 5:09 PM:

" Alihandero wrote on Nov 23, 2008 8:27 AM:

You really make me laugh from time to time. You should send an overnight fed ex package to Alan G. with a script, storyline and location for the filming.

We could slip Big John into the script and let Mrs. D be his dominatrix for some real exciting fun.
Carl Spackler could be the gardner and bull semen collecter or weekends.

You might have a academy award winning show on your hands.

All we have to do is provide some footage from the Fort and turn it into a Western. "

B. wrote on Nov 24, 2008 10:50 AM:

" Mrs. D.......I doubt very seriously if it were the Bush/Cheney people that voted Arnie to office. As I recall most of Hollywood and Ca. are full of liberals. When Grayout Davis was recalled the voters were supposed to vote for a "qualified" person to manage Ca. They were all caught up in Arnie`s movie status. If people had any brains they should have been able to see he was not qualifed. He was popular. In my opinion Arnie is a liberal in disguise. As for Sara, it appears to me you`re jealous of her. She`s a very intelligent woman, good mother, and a good wife. I`d give her a chance over the last two Gov.`s this state has had.
By the way.....I voted for Tom McClintock.

"Happy Thanksgiving" "

Watchdog Fred wrote on Nov 24, 2008 9:09 PM:

" To: Mrs.D wrote on Nov 23, 2008 5:14 PM:

Since you think Armona is so trouble free to run perhaps Hanford could take lessons from them. Although they did have a spirited School Board Election this year, if you were paying attention. "

Alihandero wrote on Nov 25, 2008 4:37 AM:

" Hey "Ms. D,"

You said this about Gov. Palin:

"There's no physical beauty; no inner beauty; nothing there in that head of hers that would make anyone jealous of her. I still can't see her political appeal."

I'll bet you wake up every day, look in the mirror, and say:

"Boy, am I ever glad I look nothing even close to Sarah Palin!"

You Betcha! "

Alihandero wrote on Nov 25, 2008 4:53 AM:

" Hey Watchdog,

I like your additions to the cast and script.

But you didn't sneak in Scott Tucker! After all, if we mention Fort Roosevelt he will find someone to take his call on the Sentinel staff...I dunno, it might be good PR after all.

We would have to pay him union scale at a minimum and that, of course, would be taxable income in the U.S. for most people.

It would make for a great western, WatchDog, ala "Blazing Saddles."

You know what I mean... "

Mrs.D wrote on Nov 25, 2008 6:54 AM:

" RE: B, I doubted any liberals voted for Schwarzenegger since he is a Republican. Remember, it was his pen strokes that brought this great state down into an economic slump.

Who is Tom McClintock? Is he one of those guys who talks big and does little? Another Republican. "

Sid wrote on Nov 25, 2008 9:10 AM:

" Mrs. D,

Party politics/loathing is making you lose credibility:

-Of course liberals voted for Arnold, and in large numbers. Remember, this is a very liberal state, liberals make up the vast majority of residents & voters. Arnold wouldn't be Governor if they didn't vote for him in large numbers.

-Arnolds "pen strokes"? You don't seem to realize again the democratic party is the majority, has been for quite a while, in the legislature. They are all the comittee chairs, including for the budget, and set agendas. They also have an approval rating much lower than Arnolds... (Just like Congress has one lower than Bush too). It was the legislature with it's punishment of both large and small businesses (to "feel good") that has chased them from the state with the resulting less tax revenue.

McClintock was the acknowleged best person for the job of Governor during the recall of Davis due to his experience over all other candidates. Yet our state went for both the "star power" and the more "sure thing" of a quasi-republican-moderate, like I did too, with Arnold.

And Arnold has been a let down. But so has the legislature again... "

Alan G wrote on Nov 25, 2008 10:04 AM:

" The Real Housewives Of Kings County Sounds like a great idea! Where exactly do the "ladies who lunch" go to eat in Kings County? I'm thinking somewhere with outdoor seating and tablecloths. Instead of covering the summer party season in the Hamptons, we'd shoot in Pismo?

I'm very familiar with the format, but I'd suggest mixing it up a little by adding those two old guys from The Muppet Show who sit in the balcony making comments and insist on having the last word on EVERYTHING! Hmmm, now who would play Statler and who would play Waldorf?

Any suggestions? "

Scott Tucker wrote on Nov 25, 2008 11:06 AM:

" Once again, "Alihandero" attacks the (wo)man - despite, or in spite of, BJMallory's, Crystal's, Melissa's, Ms.D's, MelMAOB's, Deb's and my right to freedom of speech.

"Alihandero", in his smug and snide way, proves yet again that he really is a hypocrite at heart. "

Alihandero wrote on Nov 26, 2008 2:50 PM:

" Once again Scott you demonstrate an overwhelming lack of appreciation for humor and its role in the human condition. Pity, as I believe you could be a really fun guy.

You are being completely disingenuous again; you fully know I embrace free speech and never once said or implied that anyone does not have the right to express their views in public or private forums.

I would much prefer to be labeled, as you keep saying, as being "smug and snide," versus your brand of expatriate pseudointellectual secular progressive elitism that gets very old, very quickly.

Could you find the time to address the topic of this forum - the proposed "Fun Tax," instead of thrusting unrelated gibes at those who actually live and pay taxes here?

Too much to ask, Scott? "

Watchdog Fred wrote on Nov 26, 2008 10:04 PM:

" To: Scott Tucker wrote on Nov 25, 2008 1:06 PM:

" Once again, "Alihandero" attacks the (wo)man - despite, or in spite of, BJMallory's, Crystal's, Melissa's, Ms.D's, MelMAOB's, Deb's and my right to freedom of speech.

"Alihandero", in his smug and snide way, proves yet again that he really is a hypocrite at heart. "

Scott are you trying to say that you are sticking up for the women or you are upset because you were left out until the very end? Alihandero, note to self when talking about women be sure to include Scott.
So how will you spend the holidays in Switcherland, Will you be the typical Turkey or dress like the jolly fat man this year? It must pain you to be in a country that doesn't celebrate the same holidays as we do. Perhaps during the next meeting of the society to bring hate and discontemptment toward america you can bring that up.

Twas the night fore Thanksgiving when the gobblers were asleep when the expatriot chose to creep. He stole faith, goodness and good cheer from all the children everyone holds so dear. "

Sid wrote on Nov 27, 2008 9:52 AM:

" Once again Scott,

Alihandero did a nice retort to your earlier one.

Your ability to feel the "pain" and defend those on "your side" of the issues yet to dish it out to those you don't agree with is noted.

I wouldn't have made a disctinction between a (wo)man either as you did. You see, they are both liberated and equal now. I think they are quite capable of defending themselves if necessary.

Which it kinda isn't. After all, this is just a blog.

Regardless, I would like Mrs.D's reply to my last, including her assesment that Arnold's repeal of the VLF was "only $5.00" when in fact it was much more per car owner.

Agreed, lets get back on topic of Arnolds "Fun tax" that we are possibly facing. If my "Total Recall" is correct, some of us actually do pay taxes and wouldn't appreciate any new ones. "

B. wrote on Nov 27, 2008 9:48 PM:

" Mrs D.......I believe it was Gray Davis` pen strokes that put Ca. in the slump it`s in. Arnie just made it worse.
Tom McClintock. The man qualified to be Gov.

During 22 years in the state legislature, and as a candidate for governor in California’s historic recall election, State Senator Tom McClintock has become one of the most recognizable political leaders in California.

First elected to the California Assembly at the age of 26, McClintock quickly distinguished himself as an expert in parliamentary procedure and fiscal policy. He served in the Assembly from 1982 to 1992 and again from 1996 to 2000. During these years, he authored California’s current lethal injection death penalty law, spearheaded the campaign to rebate $1.1 billion in tax over-collections to the people of California, and became the driving force in the legislature to abolish the car tax. He has proposed hundreds of specific reforms to streamline state government and reduce state spending.

In 2000, McClintock was elected to the California State Senate, where he has continued to develop innovative budget solutions such as the Bureaucracy Reduction and Closure Commission and performance-based budgeting, and to advocate for restoring California’s public works. "

B. wrote on Nov 27, 2008 9:50 PM:

" Cont`. for Mrs. D.

From 1992-1994, McClintock served as Director of the Center for the California Taxpayer, a project of the National Tax Limitation Foundation. In 1995, he was named Director of Economic and Regulatory Affairs for the Claremont Institute’s Golden State Center for Policy Studies, a position he held until his return to the Assembly in 1996. In that capacity, he wrote and lectured extensively on state fiscal policy, privatization, bureaucratic reform and governmental streamlining.

McClintock’s commentaries on California public policy have appeared in every major newspaper in California and he is a frequent guest on radio and television broadcasts across the nation. Numerous taxpayer associations have honored him for his leadership on state budget issues.

McClintock has twice received the Republican nomination for the office of State Controller, narrowly missing election in 2002 by the closest margin in California history – 23/100ths of one percent of the votes cast.

Senator McClintock currently serves as vice-chairman of the Senate Transportation and Housing Committee. He also serves on the Revenue and Taxation Committee, the Public Employment and Retirement Committee, the Committee on Legislative Ethics, the Joint Committee on Rules and the Joint Legislative Audit Committee. "

Deb wrote on Nov 30, 2008 9:43 AM:

" B. Please cite your source. "

B. wrote on Nov 30, 2008 6:11 PM:

" Well Deb........I thought you were knowledgeable. Did you think I made it all up? All you have to do is look at his website and read his biography. It`s very easy.
But I suppose you think this is a bunch of lies.
What`s wrong....you don`t like someone with the qualifications of Tom? Probably not since he`s a conservative and that wouldn`t benefit you. "

Watchdog Fred wrote on Dec 3, 2008 8:04 AM:

" To: Alihandero, what do you give an under achiever from Hanford for Christamas?

A ticket to Swtizerland and a job as a School Teacher. "

Watchdog Fred wrote on Dec 3, 2008 8:12 AM:

" To: B or not to B, oh different play bill. Sorry,

Tom McClintock would never get elected he didn't graduate from Berkeley and he resides in Southern California not Northern California. Besides that he doesn't want to raise taxes and wants to cut spending. He is all wrong for the leftest wing of voters in northern California.

He didn't graduate from USC so he doesn't get that vote either. But he has almost cleaned a few clocks that needed cleaning when running against them.

If he makes the ballot perhaps we might give him much needed support this time around. "

B. wrote on Dec 5, 2008 10:26 AM:

" WDF.....You are correct......he`s always comes close, but just can`t get over the top. It`s a real shame to, he could turn this state around. "




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