Vickie Guinn will be spending far less money on Christmas gifts this year.

While she has always been the type to shop at stores like Ross and Marshall's to save a little extra, this year it is becoming a necessity, she said.

"I plan to do a lot of shopping on Black Friday to look for bargains," Guinn said, while shopping at Wal-Mart. "I want to find more practical gifts for people that will last longer versus something that might just be used for the Christmas season."

Guinn's story is not unique.

The holiday shopping season has come to Kings County, and with it a shadow of doubt is beginning to fall on many consumers, as economic woes continue to grip national headlines.

With the economy in crisis and the word "recession" on everyone's lips, the 2008 holiday shopping season may be the clearest indicator of just what the United States -- and the global marketplace -- has in store in the coming months.

Carlos Cortez, an unemployed farm worker from Avenal, says he doesn't have much money to spend this year.

"There isn't any work," he said. "It is very slow. I'll maybe spend half of what I did last year."

Many local residents interviewed by The Sentinel said they would be shopping far less this year.

"We've actually cut back quite a bit, as far as what we would normally spend," said Kristie Weber, a registered nurse from Armona. "Everything costs more, but we're not getting paid more."

Bassam Ramli, an unemployed Hanford resident, said he will be comparing prices and looking carefully for deals.

"It was not a factor last year," he said. "This year, it is. The budget is really tight."

Holiday fallout

Holiday sales, calculated between the months of November and December, are among the most important in the retail industry and in local tax revenue. In 2007, holiday sales represented just more than 19 percent of total retail industry sales. In the years before that, holiday sales could represent anywhere from 25 to 40 percent of their entire annual sales average, according to statistics gathered by the National Retail Federation.

This year, industry experts predict that many holiday shoppers will be keeping their money in their pockets and out of the stores, a move which could really hurt the retail industry.

"Nobody is canceling Christmas because of the economy, but everyone will be on a very tight budget," NRF spokesperson Kathy Grannis said. "People are strapped for cash and they are cutting back a lot. The retail industry could be in for some challenging times in 2009."

Eric Tymoigne, an economics professor at California State University, Fresno, cites many figures as an example of the dwindling market trends.

He says that durable goods, such as cars and dishwashers, are declining in sales by about 14 percent, while non-durable goods like movies and CDs are selling 6 percent below average.

"The consumer is now really squeezed from all sides, because they have mortgage and debt payments to make while they are losing their jobs," Tymoigne said. "Unemployment may reach as high as 8 or 10 percent in the United States. No matter what retailers try to do, it is going to be hard on them, because the mood of the consumer is going down."

The retail industry overall reported its weakest October performance in more than 35 years, according to the International Council of Shopping Centers' analysis.

JC Penney, like other retail chain department stores, suffered a steep decline in October sales. The company reported a 13 percent decline from last year -- one of the highest declines among department stores.

The International Council of Shopping Centers, in response to weak October sales, downgraded its pre-season holiday forecast the remainder of the shopping season to a 1 percent gain from its original projection of 1.7 percent.

Consumers do not have high hopes.

A survey conducted by the National Retail Federation shows that consumers only plan to spend 1.9 percent more than usual on holiday merchandise. For the past decade, retail sales have been increasing by 4.4 percent every year, making this year's consumer outlook one of the lowest totals since the organization started doing the survey in 2002.

Possible turnaround

However, despite initial fears about the economy, the National Retail Federation is predicting that 2008 holiday season sales will be 2.2 percent higher than those recorded in 2007, which would lead to an estimated $470 billion in revenue from holiday sales alone.

"We are currently monitoring all factors and, in the past, we have made revisions to our holiday forecasts," Grannis said. "However, we are sticking with our current estimate. We'll just have to see once more consumer spending data is compiled."

Retailers are hoping to draw in customers with big sales events. By cutting inventory purchases to minimize the amount of leftover items at the end of sales and by lowering the number of seasonal workers hired, many retailers are hoping to recoup any potential losses from frightened consumers.

In hopes of luring more shoppers in November in December, JC Penney is offering aggressive discounts, said Donna Jaide, Hanford store manager.

"I know everyone's looking for a good deal. Everyone's watching every penny this year," Jaide said. "So far, things are looking pretty good for us this month. Things are picking up now that the weather got cooler."

Jaide remains cautiously optimistic about the local store performance in the coming weeks. Still, Jaide said it is hard to tell just how much the economic downturn could affect the holiday season sales.

"We don't know, with Mervyns closing, how it's going to affect us," Jaide said. "We won't really know until Thanksgiving. We're still two weeks away."

Wal-Mart, which has a super center in Hanford, feels it is "well-positioned" for this economy, said spokeswoman Ashley Hardie.

"Christmas is the largest shopping season of the year. As we continue to focus on delivering value to our customers, we feel we are well positioned for this economy," Hardie said.

Amid bleak overall retail sale forecasts, online retailers remain cautiously optimistic, according to New York-based online market research firm eMarketer.

The firm estimates online holiday season sales will reach $32 billion in 2008, up slightly more than 10 percent over 2007.

"We are expecting to see large amounts of traffic on Black Friday and Cyber Monday this year, due to people anticipating the discounts and the sales," Grannis said. "We believe that consumers have been holding back on making purchases for so long that they will use Black Friday as a great way to splurge on something nice for themselves. Everything from winter staples like coats and hats to traditional holiday gifts like digital cameras will be drastically marked down, so consumers stand to win at the end of the day."

Bargain-hunting season

But while the retail giants prepare themselves for the hard months ahead, many local residents are changing their holiday plans to reflect the troubled economic times.

"We're going to focus on the younger kids," Hanford mechanic James Kinser said. "We'll get the adults together, maybe draw names. I'll primarily be buying gifts for my 10 grandkids and two adopted children. The adults are pretty much going to fend for themselves."

Many Kings County consumers said they are looking for good deals on smaller items this year.

On the day before Veterans Day, The Monday Sale at Alma's Flea Market was bustling with frugal shoppers looking for good deals. Cars clogged east Lacey Boulevard as people rushed to the Monday Sale. Charlene Jaspersen, property owner who runs the popular swap meet, says things have been picking up since October, likely because of the holiday season approaching.

Martin and Rebecca Ortiz, a husband and a wife from Hanford, are regulars at the Monday Sale. Especially this year, as they begin to feel the effects of the sour economy.

"We come out here to see what kind of deals we can find," said Martin Ortiz, a mobile home transporter in town. "For example, I got this brand-new dashboard cover for my car for $25. I could've paid $75-$100 elsewhere. With the economy the way it is, I'm always looking for the cheaper price."

Kim Surber, a nursing student at West Hills College in Lemoore, said she will be switching from big-ticket items to "stocking stuffers" this year. Some of her friends will be skipping gifts altogether this year and instead "just doing the dinner."

"I'll be buying more practical gifts that will last longer, versus something that just might be used for the Christmas season," said Vickie Guinn, an account executive from Bakersfield.

But for some, the economy won't be changing holiday traditions at all.

Steve Marmaduke, a Hanford gasoline tanker truck driver, usually only buys gifts for his kids and grandkids.

"I don't think we're going to be doing anything different than we ever did," he said.

And while Lemoore resident Johanna Perez will be spending less this year, she says it won't change the reason for the season.

"It is a time to spend with family," Perez said. "That's not going to change."

(Nov. 22, 2008)