The stock market is on a dizzying roller coaster ride, the housing market has been tanking and Americans are staring into the abyss of a long economic downturn. For some sectors of the economy, the effect has been disastrous -- think of the Big Three on the verge of bankruptcy, or, closer to home, retail outlets like Mervyn's shutting their doors.

But experts say that agriculture -- Kings County's largest private sector employer -- ought to remain stable during a prolonged recession.

"People have to eat, and we typically in a bad economy tend to do well," said Craig Pedersen.

Pedersen Farms, located in Kings County, grows alfalfa, corn and wheat for the dairy industry.

Pedersen's take on how agriculture fares in a bad economy was echoed in different sectors around Kings County.

One area expected to do well is the tomato industry, which has reached Kings County in a big way through a huge tomato processing plant that went online at JG Boswell Co. a few months ago to process the company's burgeoning tomato crop.

Boswell, historically known for its cotton production in the vast fields of southern Kings County, has become one of the world's major sources of tomato paste, according to Dave Johnson, director of marketing in the company's food and feed products division.

And that, Johnson said, helps position the company well for a recession.

"Companies involved in staple crops like tomatoes ... are less likely to experience the big downs," Johnson said.

Agriculture in Kings County tends to be less prone to the downs and the ups, according to John Lehn, president of the Kings County Economic Development Corporation.

That can mean static growth in boom periods while other sectors of the economy like housing and high-tech grow rapidly, Lehn said.

But in a downturn scenario, the bottom isn't likely to fall out of agriculture, Lehn noted.

This plays itself out in Kings County's manufacturing sector, 80 percent of which is directly tied to agriculture, Lehn noted.

Some major plants like Leprino Foods in Lemoore actually had plans to expand and hire more people even as the economy began contracting early this year.

For tomato producers like Boswell, the good news is that people are eating at home more often, and preparing cheap pasta dishes that utilize tomato paste.

As far as restaurants go, if people do go out to eat, they are leaning toward cheaper options like pizza -- which sustains demand for tomato products.

Chris Woolf, a partner at Los Gatos Tomato Products in Huron, noted recent news articles describing how Heinz ketchup and Campbell's soup are doing well amid the general downturn.

"I find that encouraging. It might be a shift, fewer sales at a restaurant and more to the consumer," Woolf said.

The significance of tomatoes could be key for California cotton growers like Boswell who now grow mostly Pima, a more expensive cotton expected to face challenges in a bad economy.

Cotton production value in Kings County was second only to dairy last year, according to Kings County Agricultural Commissioners Office.

Kings County's number one agricultural commodity -- dairy products were worth $692 million in 2007 -- is expected to hold up in a recession.

"Food becomes more of an issue. It takes on more importance," said George Longfellow, who runs a dairy south of Hanford that milks approximately 1,000 cows.

Longfellow said that in the last three weeks, he's had 50 people fill out applications for jobs.

However, that doesn't mean that he necessarily has them.

Longfellow expects dairy to contract along with everything else -- which could mean culling more cows, cutting some labor and deferring maintenance costs.

He's weathered downturns before. What worries Longfellow most right now is the issue of drought.

After two consecutive years of low precipitation, California is poised for a severe water shortage next year.

That concerns Longfellow because 80 percent of his cows' food is grown on the surrounding cropland he owns.

Still, for farmers like Pedersen, it's full speed ahead as the recession takes its toll on other parts of the economy.

"I would still agree that Kings County is in a good spot," Pedersen said.

The reporter can be reached at 583-2432.

(Dec. 2, 2008)