Kings County's $1.7 billion-a-year ag industry could be in for tough times, if predictions in a recent University of California climate change report come true. The report on global warming, announced last week, forecasts reduced snowpacks, less water available for agriculture, saturation of the air with carbon dioxide, more fertilizers needed to keep plants alive and worsening problems with insect pests.

For Kings County's valuable tree fruit crops -- pistachios, almonds and stone fruit -- the report predicts fewer chilling hours in the winter, leading to lower yields.

Tree crops need a certain number of cold hours in the winter months in order for the fruit to "set."

Warming temps may also help transform the San Joaquin Valley into more of a desert than it already is.

The effect could push the effective range of some crops further north, said Steve Jackson, a tree grower in southwestern Kings County.

Jackson said that fewer chill hours in the winter will result in less predictability about the amount of fruit and nut production each year.

"I hope it is not as much as the prediction says," Jackson said.

Global warming could also lead to more restrictive rules for dairies, which have been regulated for air pollution since 2004.

They will face more scrutiny under California's landmark greenhouse gas-reduction law, passed in 2006.

UC Davis researchers suggest that changes in feed mixture and extending the lifespan of milk cows could help cut greenhouse gas emissions from dairies, most of which come from cows chewing their cud and belching.

Still, Kings County farmers and agricultural officials declined to panic.

"Really all that we can say is that farmers would have to adapt, like with any other issue," said Diana Peck, Kings County Farm Bureau executive director.

Peck noted the increasing water conservation in recent years. Valley farmers have managed to boost productivity with less irrigation water.

"I think that's just evident, that farmers are adaptable," Peck said.

But the scientists involved in the report suggested that there will be major hurdles to overcome.

One prediction is that more and more precipitation will fall as rain, overwhelming reservoirs and forcing water to be released at times when agriculture can't use it.

At least two local growers, after reading the report, argued that it makes a good case for building more reservoir capacity.

"We've got to capture as much and retain as much water as we can, whether it be for agriculture or for population," said Steve Nash, a Selma dairy owner.

"If their projections are correct and the climate is indeed warming, then this report makes the best argument I know of in favor of building water storage, reducing regulatory barriers on agriculture and investing in genetic technology," said Dino Giacomazzi, a dairy operator near Hanford.

He also argued that if the government starts regulating greenhouse gas emissions more heavily -- as California is expected to do under landmark legislation passed in 2006 -- farmers should get credit for growing crops because they remove carbon dioxide from the air.

Carbon dioxide is a leading greenhouse gas said to be contributing to global warming.

Like Peck, Giacomazzi expressed confidence in the ability of Valley growers to adapt to whatever comes down the pike.

"California farmers are the most advanced and innovative in the world. They have and will continue to adapt to changes in markets and government regulations, and will adapt in the future even if that change comes from the sun," he said.

The Associated Press contributed to this report. The reporter can be reached at 583-2432.

(April 14, 2009)