Hit by drought and other issues, it looks like local almond growers will see their crop decline by almost 10 percent this year. The forecast released Friday by the Modesto-based Almond Board of California projects a 9.7 percent decline in production statewide.

Kings County had an estimated 13,000 acres of almonds in 2008. The estimated dollar value won't be released until next week. In 2007, the crop was worth $47 million.

Growers weren't surprised by the projected decline. Some expected an even bigger drop.

"I think there's some merit to that (9.7 percent) number," said Bill Tos, a Hanford almond grower.

Tos provided three explanations for the decline.

One is a natural cyclical pattern. There was a bumper crop last year, and a falloff is typical for the subsequent season.

Another factor is a frost in early March that damaged some of the buds. Then there is drought, particularly on the Westside.

Some Westside farmers are being forced to apply less water to their crop, which may reduce productivity. They are also retiring acreage that might otherwise have several years left in its production cycle.

But it remains unclear just how big an impact drought is playing on almonds.

It appears that farmers have managed to stave off disaster by redirecting all available water away from field crops to their orchards.

While cotton acreage has fallen off dramatically, almond acreage has steadily increased over the last several years.

"I think we're OK," Tos said.

The county's almond crop on the Westside seems to have avoided wholesale tree pullouts, according to Steve Schweizer, deputy count agricultural commissioner.

But drought-affected growers might shorten the harvest season by cutting off the water and sending the trees into early dormancy, Schweizer said.

Almond growers are assessing how future water stress will affect orchard management, a USDA report stated.

The reporter can be reached at 583-2432.

(May 9, 2009)