The odds -- 50/50 -- are better than Vegas. But the stakes are much higher.

Experts say there's a one-in-two shot that this winter's snowpack will be average or better. At a conference last week in San Diego hosted by the Department of Water Resources, analysts were "cautiously optimistic", said Jeanine Jones, interstate resources manager.

A strengthening El Nino in the Pacific Ocean is the reason researchers are a little more upbeat. The warming trend in ocean water is often associated with wetter years.

La Nina, a cooling of ocean temperatures, was prevalent during much of the last three consecutive dry years in the Sierra.

Kings County farmers are watching nervously. From Westside fields to orchards around Kingsburg, farmers rely on water derived from all parts of the Sierra to supply their crops and crank out a multi-billion dollar industry that is second only to government employment as a revenue generator in Kings County.

Three consecutive drought years have generated crisis conditions in some parts of the county -- specifically, the Westside towns of Avenal, Kettleman City and Stratford, where already high unemployment has created a mini-Depression.

Westside farmers rely on water pumped from the Sacramento-San Joaquin River delta, and that was in short supply this planting season due to the drought and pumping restrictions imposed to protect endangered delta fish.

Farmers in parts of Kings County who have access to local river supplies have fared better, but they haven't been spared. Many have deepened wells, drilled new ones and added tighter irrigation systems as the drought continues.

Last week's forecast is an improvement from three months ago, when meteorologists said there was an even  chance of above normal, normal, or below normal precipitation. In other words, there was no particular reason to expect a wet year.

Another dry year would be a serious blow to an industry already reeling from a multi-year drought. Users of federal delta water on the Westside got only 10 percent this year. State Water Project users received 40 percent.

Another dry year would likely give Westside users even less water to work with, according to Don Mills, general manager of the Kings County Water District.

"It would be double ugly," Mills said.

The district covers northeastern Kings County and reaches down around Hanford to the east and west.

Mills won't be able to tell growers much until the snowpack totals come in at the end of March. But growers have already been lowering wells, adding drip lines and shifting to micro-sprinklers, Mills said.

The race to the bottom in groundwater supplies has created a six- to 12-month wait for new well drilling, Mills said, meaning that growers who want new wells online for next summer had to have made the decision already.

There is one other reason researchers point to that gives farmers reason to hope -- the fact that there were only two droughts in the 1900s lasting longer than three years.

"We live or die with what Mother Nature produces," Mills said.

The reporter can be reached at 583-2432.

(Nov. 12, 2009)