Kings County unemployment trends upward

Reflecting the end of the harvest season and a stagnant economy, Kings County's jobless rate spiked to 15.5 percent in October, up 1.6 percent from September, the state Employment Development Department reported Friday.

Anemic job growth was outmatched by the number of people looking for work. Most industries experienced a decline compared to September. Compared to a year ago, the only industries showing positive job growth were agriculture, education and health services.

State and local government -- generally the gold standard for employment stability in Kings County -- saw year-over-year losses. Lemoore Naval Air Station wasn't included in the numbers.

A total of 9,300 county residents were out of work, up 43 percent from a year ago. Unemployment remained extreme in the county's poorer enclaves, with Home Garden at 34.3 percent, Stratford at 33 percent, Avenal at 26.9 percent and Kettleman City at 26.3 percent.

Still, several San Joaquin Valley counties were worse off than Kings.

To explain this, analysts have cited the high percentage of high-paying government jobs in Kings and the fact that the county's central location has protected it somewhat from the housing collapse that hammered counties within commuting distance of San Francisco and Los Angeles.

The biggest spikes in San Joaquin Valley unemployment were in areas with the highest foreclosure rates, according to Jeff Michael, director of the Business Forecasting Center at the University of the Pacific.

Most of the unemployment surge is tied to the implosion of the housing market, the collapse of the construction industry and the loss of home equity wealth, Michael said.

The ripple effect hurt the retail and manufacturing sectors and froze credit, spreading its effect to the whole economy.

The crisis crippled the state's finances, generating huge budget deficits and forcing layoffs.

Farming didn't suffer as much. In Kings County, agriculture managed to add jobs year-over-year despite major water shortages on the Westside. The impact of those shortages was concentrated in Fresno County.

But the relative stability of agriculture wasn't enough to stem the slide, which has the county's jobless rate riding about 5 percent higher than the recent historical norm of close to 10 percent for this time of year.

Kings County's elevated jobless rate parallels what's happened to the nation's unemployment rate, Michael said. California's unemployment rate was 12.3 percent.

"[15.5 percent] is terrible, but it's terrible everywhere," Michael said.

Kings' unemployment rate was the 13th highest in the state. Neighboring counties were slightly worse off than Kings. Tulare County's unemployment rate was 15.9 percent; Fresno County's was 15.8. Imperial County, in Southern California, was the worst at 30 percent.

Some Valley counties could reach 20 percent unemployment before the worst is over, Michael said.

It will probably take another five years before Kings County sees October unemployment drop back to 10 percent, Michael said.

"It's going to be a long, slow recovery. We're going to have to be very patient," Michael said.

(Nov. 21, 2009)