In some agricultural communities on the Westside, conditions are worse than at the lowest point of the Great Depression. Unemployment is more than 25 percent, empty fields blow in the wind and people wait in bread lines.
But agriculture statewide is a remarkably stable source of jobs amid tough economic times and water shortages.
At least, that's according to state numbers. They show less than a 1
percent drop in agricultural employment from 2008 to 2009. The Employment Development Department reported a monthly average of 390,900 workers in California agriculture in 2008 and 389,217 in 2009.
That's important for Kings County, because agriculture is the county's second largest employer behind government.
Some said they find the numbers hard to believe.
As surface water supplies dwindled with drought and regulatory restrictions, Stone Land Co. in western Kings County made cuts to its seasonal staff and fallowed acres, said manager Tony Azevedo. The EDD numbers "don't make sense," he said.
To others, however, they make plenty of sense.
In Kings County, economic development officials have long argued that agriculture is a relatively stable economic force more insulated from ups and downs than other sectors like technology and housing. The nature of agriculture -- providing food and fiber that people need -- gives it a stability other industries lack, they argue.
"To me, it's not surprising that it's stable," said John Lehn, CEO of Kings County Economic Development Corporation.
Kings County's crop statistics bear this out. They show total production rising in 2007 and declining only slightly in 2008. The numbers for 2009 are expected in April.
Lehn pointed to higher unemployment statistics in counties where the housing bust was worse. Looking at the very high unemployment rates in agricultural towns like Avenal and Stratford, he noted that elevated unemployment is "not unusual" because of the seasonal nature of agricultural work. The effect of drought is magnified in such towns because they have few other industries to fall back on, he said.
Lehn expects agricultural employment numbers to "decrease slightly" this year if the drought continues.
Many business experts think that high San Joaquin Valley unemployment should be blamed mostly on the housing bust. A 2009 report from the University of the Pacific's Eberhardt School of Business estimated 6,000 jobs have been lost from farming water shortages and 47,000 jobs from the construction collapse. Thousands of workers who lost jobs in the building industry are flooding the agricultural labor market, the report stated.
Average monthly employment in construction statewide declined 18 percent from 2008-2009, the EDD reported, even as agricultural jobs held fairly constant.
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(Feb. 6, 2010)
ToldYouSo wrote on Feb 6, 2010 11:26 PM: